An Investor's Guide to
Congressional Stock Trading
A select group of U.S. politicians have demonstrated extraordinary investment returns, consistently outperforming the market. Discover the data, the players, and the strategies.
The Pelosi Playbook: A Market-Beating Portfolio
2023 Portfolio Return
65%
vs. 26.3% for the S&P 500
2024 Portfolio Return
54%
vs. 25.0% for the S&P 500
Primary Strategy
Leveraged Tech
Concentrated bets in AI & Tech using call options
NVIDIA (NVDA)
Exercised 50 call options to acquire 50,000 shares at a strike price of just $12, realizing a multi-million-dollar gain on the AI boom.
Palo Alto Networks (PANW)
Yielded an estimated gain of approximately $2.8 million from exercising 140 call options in the cybersecurity firm.
Tempus AI (TEM)
The disclosure of the Pelosi investment was followed by a 35% surge in the company's share price, demonstrating the 'Pelosi Effect'.
Controversy & Defense
The portfolio's extraordinary performance has led to persistent accusations of insider trading, suggesting access to non-public information.
The Official Defense:
"Speaker Pelosi does not own any stocks and has no knowledge or subsequent involvement in any transactions."
Decisions are attributed solely to her husband, Paul Pelosi, a venture capitalist.
Annual Performance vs. Benchmarks
| Year | Pelosi Portfolio Return | S&P 500 (SPY) | Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) | Outperformance (vs. SPY) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 65.0% | 26.3% | 54.8% | +3,870 bps |
| 2024 | 54.0% | 25.0% | 44.6% | +2,900 bps |
Capitol Hill's Top Traders
While the Pelosi portfolio attracts the most attention, the practice of active stock trading is widespread in Congress, often in sectors related to their committee assignments.
| Politician & Committees | Est. 2024 Trade Volume | Trades | Primary Sectors |
|---|---|---|---|
Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-NJ) Financial Services; Intelligence | $91,050,000 | 526 | Technology, Defense, Financials |
Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) Speaker Emerita | $37,750,000 | 17 | Technology, AI, Energy |
Rep. Scott Franklin (R-FL) Armed Services; Appropriations | $5,993,000 | 69 | Defense, Industrials |
Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-AL) Armed Services; Agriculture | $5,531,500 | 202 | Defense, Agriculture |
Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-OK) Environment & Public Works | $4,407,000 | 71 | Energy, Healthcare |
Partisan Portfolio ETFs
The market has responded to these trends by creating politically themed ETFs that mirror the trades of each party.
NANC (Democratic)
58.9% Return
GOP (Republican)
30.2% Return
Committee Correlation
A strong correlation exists between a politician's committee assignments and their trading activity, suggesting a potential informational advantage.
For example, members of Armed Services committees frequently trade defense stocks, while those on Financial Services committees are active in banking and tech.
A Framework for Implementation
A simple "copy-and-paste" approach is unlikely to succeed. Treat disclosures as a source of high-potential ideas that require a disciplined, analytical framework.
1. Curation
Select politicians to follow based on historical performance, committee assignments, and trading style (high-frequency vs. high-conviction).
2. Information Flow
Use a third-party platform to set up real-time alerts. Speed is critical to get ahead of the "crowded trade" effect that follows disclosures.
3. Trade Triage
An alert is a starting point, not a buy signal. Analyze the price movement since the trade date and assess the company's current fundamentals.
4. Execution
Decide on the appropriate instrument (stock vs. options) and position size. Treat these as speculative trades within a diversified portfolio.
Risks & Investor Toolkit
The STOCK Act: Foundation & Flaws
The Stop Trading on Congressional Knowledge (STOCK) Act of 2012 mandates disclosure but is hampered by significant flaws.
- Reporting Lag: Members have up to 45 days to disclose a trade, a critical delay for investors.
- Negligible Penalties: A standard fine of just $200 for late filing is not a meaningful deterrent.
- Lack of Enforcement: Despite common violations, no member of Congress has ever been prosecuted under the act.
Data Sources & Platforms
An ecosystem of platforms makes tracking this data more actionable than sifting through raw government filings.
| Platform | Speed | Cost |
|---|---|---|
| Official House/Senate Portals | Delayed (30-45 days) | Free |
| Quiver Quantitative | Near Real-Time | Freemium |
| Unusual Whales | Near Real-Time | Premium |
| Finnhub API | Programmatic | Varies |
Key Risk Factors
Legislative Risk
A bipartisan movement (e.g., the ETHICS Act) aims to ban congressional stock trading, which would make this entire strategy obsolete overnight.
Volatility & Concentration
These portfolios are often highly concentrated and volatile. This is not a diversified, conservative strategy and carries high risk of drawdowns.
Reporting Lag & Crowded Trades
The 45-day delay means you're buying late. The disclosure itself can cause a price surge, creating risk that you're buying at an inflated peak.